Riding night statistician: what happened to the trillion plate explosion?
The market entered a rebound cycle after a rapid decline.
However, the potential market risks have not subsided.
The probability of raising interest rates by 100bp in July rose slightly to 35%.
However, at present, the probability of raising interest rates by 75bp is still higher.
I hope the Federal Reserve will not make a fuss at that time.
I feel that the overall market has nothing to comment on at present, and it is in a short stable period, which should be the case these days.
The market is waiting for the next change.
Haitong macro tracked the data of 7.11-7.17.
Look at the figure for yourself, and the impact is still quite large.
The weakness of the market some time ago can also be said to be the superposition of many factors.
On July 20, the people’s Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce that on July 20, 2022, the loan market quotation rate (LPR) was 3.7% for a one-year period and 4.45% for a five-year period.
The above LPR is valid before the next LPR release.
LPR in 1-year and 5-year periods remained unchanged.
This is also in line with expectations.
The market has no expectations to adjust at present.
The Asian Olympic Council announced on the 19th that the 19th Asian Games 2022 in Hangzhou, originally scheduled to be held from September 10 to 25 this year, will be held from September 23 to October 8, 2023, and the name will remain the 19th Asian Games 2022 in Hangzhou.
Can the epidemic stop next year? I hope it can stop.
On the disk, track stocks have been active in turns, led by consumption and military industry on the disk today.
In the military industry sector, first of all, China’s satellite trading limit, which has a great relationship with Musk’s company.
Recently, it has launched several rockets, all of which are used as satellite chains.
In addition, affected by the situation in the Taiwan Strait, the ship Department rose sharply, the Jianglong boat harvest rose by the limit of 20%, and Saixiang technology, Baota industry, aerospace power, etc.
rose by the limit one after another.
As I said before, there will be changes before 8.1.
And it is very clear that there is performance support.
There is no big change in the growth logic or performance fulfillment of sector companies.
After the disclosure of the first quarter report, the industry boom and performance certainty were further recognized, and there was a wave of significant repair at the valuation level.
The medium and long-term growth logic of the military industry is relatively certain.
At present, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent (mainly in short supply).
With the gradual release of production capacity, the industry still maintains a high outlook.
There is also the consumption sector, such as medical beauty, diamond cultivation, catering tourism, etc., which is more optional consumption.
At present, the rebound of track stocks is more and more crowded, but it is low consumption.
Under the condition that it is expected to recover in the second half of the year, the position at this time is still very competitive.
However, the recovery may have twists and turns, so it may still fluctuate in the short term.
It should be a relatively bottom position to lengthen the cycle.
The auto sector is relatively poor, and many stocks fell or rose and fell.
In fact, you can also look at the recent announcement of the sector.
You can find that the announcement of reducing holdings in the automotive sector has begun to increase, which can also show that the recent automotive stocks are indeed very expensive.
From the perspective of technology, the market is still around the 3300 pressure level, and the shock has not completely broken through.
We said that if the market wants to strengthen, this pressure level must be broken through, and then use 3 buy points to confirm.
This is a necessary condition.
On Thursday, I expected the market to choose a direction for a small level, and it will not be a shock again.
I subjectively think the probability of stepping back is higher, but I still think this step back is treated as an opportunity, This round of rebound is not over.
If you step back to the support level, you can first refer to the vicinity of 3280 points.
Cyclists hope that everyone can develop the good habit of looking good after reading.
If my analysis benefits you, you don’t need any reward or appreciation.
I just hope to forward and share the circle of friends.
Thank you very much!..