Riders at night: will the black diving of track stocks be worse on Thursday?

News surface 1.

Let’s take a look at the trend of a shares.

Today, it fell.

I think it is basically that the short-term growth rate needs to be changed.

The current position is already very high, and there is a change today.

In the case of a sharp fall in U.S.

stocks, a shares did not take an independent market today, which is a change different from the recent trend.

But I guess it will be a few days’ adjustment.

At present, it should not become a weekly adjustment.

Then look a little longer.

First, the monthly line.

The current monthly line combination is actually similar to that of 2018 and 2020.

In addition, at the weekly level, it’s almost the same.

It’s really very similar.

I think there’s another positive monthly line at the monthly level.

It’s going to be July soon.

It’s estimated that there’s no big problem in July.

There may be a big adjustment in August or September.

The above is purely personal speculation.

There was another important news last night.

According to media reports, the CSRC will prohibit mainland investors abroad from participating in the stock interconnection mechanism, including not opening the Shanghai Shenzhen Hong Kong stock connect account and not trading a shares through such accounts.

Under the new regulations, such long-standing investors and accounts will eventually be completely dismissed.

The new regulations will be implemented from July 25, 2022, and a one-year transition period will be set to make different retirement arrangements for different groups of mainland investors.

According to official data, such investors account for a small proportion Only about 1% But I actually feel that there may not be many fake foreign capitals In addition, the two exchanges officially incorporated the qualified exchange-traded open-end funds (exchange traded funds, hereinafter referred to as ETFs) into the trading interconnection mechanism between the mainland and Hong Kong stock markets (hereinafter referred to as “interconnection”).

ETF transactions under interconnection will begin on July 4, 2022.

Including carbon neutralization ETF (159790), new energy vehicle ETF (515030), chip ETF (159995), food and beverage ETF (515170), chuangcheng ETF (159967) and other high-quality products.

This is actually a lot more convenient for using the funds of the Shanghai Hong Kong stock connect.


Xunyugen team of Haitong strategy: learn from the 20 years’ experience to see the impact of the downward revision of the profit of the interim report ① how the market performs when the profit forecast over the years is significantly revised down depends on the valuation position.

When the seller’s profit forecast is revised down, the market does not necessarily “kill the performance”, but it still depends on the valuation.

For example, the profit forecast for 18-19 consecutive years is revised down (the expected value of the total profit for 18 years is revised down by 8% and that for 19 years is revised down by 10%), but the valuation at the beginning of 18 is expensive, and the valuation at the beginning of 19 is cheap, and the final trend of the stock market is completely different.

② This year’s concern about the downward revision of profits under the epidemic situation can be compared with that from July to October of 20 years.

The total A-share net profit forecast for 20 years was revised down by 17%, of which 10% was revised down before and after the disclosure of the first quarterly report (from January to May), and 7% was revised down during the disclosure of the third quarterly report (from July to October).

However, Wande a fell by 1% from January to may, and 6% from July to October.

The reason was that the valuation level was different when the profit was revised down.

In July of 20, the market experienced a four month rise, and the PE quantile returned to 87% (since the beginning of 2013).

③ This year’s downward revision of profits is less than 20 years, and its impact on the market can be compared with that of that year.

From January to May this year, the total predicted net profit of a shares was revised down by 7%, and it is expected that it will be revised down again, but the range is less than 20 years.

It is expected that the profit growth rate of all a shares in 22q2 in a single quarter will be about 0%.

Since the low point in April, the Wande all a index has risen by 25%, and the PE quantile has risen from 27% to 48% (since the beginning of 2013).


Pacific Machinery: about teslabot robot, there are three elements: perception, cognition and action.

At this stage, perception has made the greatest progress, but cognition and action are still very difficult.

At present, cognition can only do some simple recognition.

Deep cognition still needs a long time.

For action, the core is the joint, namely harmonic reducer + servo motor.

Tesla humanoid robot has 42 joints in the whole body, all of which adopt harmonic reducer + servo motor (the core mark is green harmonic).

We think that the volume of teslabot may not rise in the short term, but all companies, including Dyson service robot (whose robot research has recruited 2000 people and invested more than RMB 5 billion), Amazon robot and other similar products, have made great investments, and there will also be a certain demand for speed reducers and motors in the initial stage.

It should be added that as a high-precision reducer for robots, the harmonic can be made very small compared with RV.

The largest potential market for harmonic reducers in the future is civil markets such as service robots and smart homes.

On the disk, after successfully completing the 3400 point task due to the ninth edition of epidemic prevention news yesterday, the “asterisk” mark on the itinerary card was directly cancelled today, but the stock market was not rescued, and finally ushered in the adjustment within this week.

The range is not large, but many high-level stocks and track stocks are very destructive.

Yesterday, the auto stocks were still driving fast.

Today, they slammed on the brakes.

Chang’an Automobile, the mainstay of Chang’an Automobile, really moved the overall situation.

In the plate, the national machinery automobile fell by the limit.

Guangdong Hongtu, agcodi, Haima automobile, etc.

touched the limit.

Ankai bus is the sky floor.

Chang’an automobile has a good interpretation of what the market stops at acceleration.

I have always said that it is not a good thing to be too consistent.

In addition, the bottom of Chang’an automobile has doubled, and the profit margin is too large.

Since the low point, the automobile sector has risen by 66% in a short time.

Zhongtong bus, Zhejiang Shibao, Songzhi Co., Ltd., Ankai bus and other companies rose sharply, and bull stocks emerged one after another.

After BYD, Great Wall Motors and SAIC, Chang’an automobile is also the fourth automobile enterprise with a market value of more than 200billion in the history of A-share.

Xiaokang shares was also successfully promoted to the sixth automobile stock with a market value of more than 100 billion yuan..